This surgical risk calculator is based on scientific research published by Dr. Dolan and Dr. Weinstein, et. al. from the University of Iowa in 2019. You may recognize Dr. Weinstein’s name as he is a well known and respected figure in the world of scoliosis care and research and is a pediatric orthopedic surgeon specializing in spinal deformities and problems with the hip. The ground breaking BRAIST study which found bracing to be an effective treatment for scoliosis was also published by Dr. Weinstein and his group.

By looking at 115 patients with scoliosis who were untreated, a number of possible predictive factors were analyzed including the age of the patient, their gender, the type of their curve, their Cobb angle, and skeletal maturity. Ultimately, a mathematical model was developed that looked at skeletal maturity (via the Sander’s scale), Cobb angle, and the type of curve. Our calculator has been updated to include all curve types described by the scientific publication; simply selecting the matching curve type will adjust the calculation accordingly.

Just as the conclusions of the paper stated, we hope that this calculator for estimating the likelihood of surgery if a curve is left untreated will help you and others to make better, more informed treatment decisions. Now instead of merely wondering and hoping that a curve won’t get worse and require surgery, you can calculate the risk of a curve worsening using rigorous scientific data from real cases of untreated scoliosis.